Energy experts have cautioned that recent recommendations by the World Bank urging Nigeria to expand fuel imports and fully liberalise its downstream petroleum sector could reverse hard-won gains and conflict with existing laws.
The experts argued that the advice, contained in the Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, is ill-timed and risks pushing Nigeria back into dependence on imported petroleum products.
An energy economist, Ken Ife, criticised the recommendation during a televised interview, describing it as inconsistent with Nigeria’s push for energy self-reliance and local value addition.
While acknowledging that parts of the report were analytically sound, he warned that advocating increased fuel importation undermines ongoing reforms.
According to Ife, the proposal contradicts provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritises domestic refining through the Domestic Crude Obligation framework.
“The law clearly supports local refining. Advising a return to fuel imports runs against both policy direction and legal provisions,” he said.
He further warned that increased reliance on imports could expose the country to global supply shocks, worsen foreign exchange pressures, and discourage investments in local refining capacity at a time when private sector participation is expanding.
Echoing similar concerns, energy analyst Kelvin Emmanuel described the World Bank’s position as disconnected from current market realities.
He also claimed that the report had been withdrawn from the Bank’s website, though this could not be independently verified.
Emmanuel dismissed suggestions that imported petrol could be cheaper than locally refined products, citing high global oil prices and logistics costs.
He noted that no importer could profitably land petrol in Nigeria below prevailing domestic prices when freight, insurance, and supply chain risks are considered.
He added that global crude benchmarks, including Brent crude, have surged amid geopolitical tensions, significantly impacting fuel pricing dynamics.
The analyst also argued that Nigeria’s fuel pricing challenges are largely due to inconsistent enforcement of domestic supply frameworks rather than supply shortages, stressing that adherence to local refining policies would help stabilise prices.
On broader economic policy, Emmanuel criticised recommendations for expanding social safety nets through borrowing, warning that such measures could breach fiscal responsibility principles.
He maintained that borrowing should be reserved for capital and developmental projects rather than consumption.
The experts’ positions come amid ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s energy sector aimed at boosting domestic refining, reducing import dependence, and strengthening energy security.
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