BudgIT, a civic technology organisation focused on public finance transparency and accountability, has described Nigeria’s 2026 Federal Budget as ambitious but largely unrealistic, warning that the fiscal plan may be difficult to implement given the country’s revenue challenges and growing debt burden.
In a statement issued on Monday, the organisation noted that the budget, initially proposed at N58.47 trillion by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was later increased to N68.32 trillion following the approval of an additional N9.09 trillion by the Senate at the President’s request.
According to BudgIT, the N68.32 trillion budget represents the largest fiscal plan in Nigeria’s history and is expected to be financed through a combination of revenue generation measures and borrowing.
The organisation expressed concern over what it described as a widening fiscal imbalance, pointing out that projected government revenue of N36.87 trillion falls significantly short of the planned expenditure, resulting in a fiscal deficit of N31.45 trillion. The deficit, it noted, represents 6.41 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exceeding the three per cent threshold stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
BudgIT observed that the government is expected to finance only 53.9 per cent of the budget from actual revenues, leaving 46.1 per cent dependent on loans and borrowing. It warned that the growing reliance on debt suggests a structural weakness that has become entrenched within Nigeria’s fiscal framework despite repeated concerns raised by stakeholders.
The organisation also highlighted concerns about budget implementation and transparency, arguing that weak revenue performance and limited public trust in governance continue to undermine effective budget execution.
It stressed that timely publication of budget implementation and fiscal reports is essential for accountability, adding that approved budgets in Nigeria often fail to translate into actual performance because fund releases remain opaque and difficult to track.
On the expenditure side, BudgIT acknowledged that the budget reflects an expansionary stance, with capital expenditure projected at N32.28 trillion, representing 47.13 per cent of total spending. While this signals a commitment to infrastructure development and economic growth, the organisation said the impact could be constrained by mounting debt obligations.
Debt servicing is projected at N15.8 trillion, accounting for about 23 per cent of total expenditure and nearly 45 per cent of projected revenue. BudgIT warned that this would significantly reduce fiscal space and limit government investments in critical sectors.
The organisation further argued that sectoral allocations reveal a continued mismatch between spending priorities and development needs. While security received N6.98 trillion, equivalent to 10.21 per cent of the budget, allocations to health and education remained below recommended benchmarks.
According to the statement, the health sector received only 5.2 per cent of the budget, far below the 15 per cent target set under the Abuja Declaration, while education accounted for approximately four per cent of total spending, which BudgIT said falls short of global standards.
It noted that the funding gaps continue to affect service delivery, citing Nigeria’s dependence on out-of-pocket healthcare financing and the challenge of more than 18 million out-of-school children.
Commenting on the budget, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Adejoke Akinbode, said the fiscal plan reflects an attempt by the government to balance economic growth objectives with existing fiscal realities but remains constrained by structural inefficiencies.
She stated that Nigeria’s core challenge extends beyond revenue generation to include revenue realism, expenditure discipline, prudent debt management and institutional credibility.
Akinbode warned that failure to address these issues could deepen fiscal vulnerabilities, weaken economic growth prospects and worsen social outcomes.
She also expressed concern that the country is approaching an election year, raising fears that the budget may contain elements of politically motivated spending aimed at achieving short-term visibility rather than delivering long-term national benefits.
BudgIT called on the government to enforce zero tolerance for extra-budgetary spending and off-budget expenditures. It urged the executive arm of government to adopt a strict prioritisation framework that channels scarce public resources toward high-impact projects capable of boosting productivity, improving public service delivery and supporting sustainable economic growth.
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