The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), representing the country’s Non-Alcoholic Drinks (NAD) sector, has urged the Federal Government to adopt a coordinated, evidence-based approach to excise taxation, warning that proposed changes to sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes could negatively affect jobs, investments, and economic stability.
The association expressed concern over provisions in the proposed Customs and Excise Tariff etc. (Consolidation) Act (Amendment) Bill 2025, which seeks to replace the current specific excise duty of N10 per litre on SSBs with a levy based on a percentage of retail prices.
According to MAN, while the industry supports government efforts to improve revenue generation and address public health concerns, tax policies must remain predictable and grounded in empirical evidence to avoid unintended economic consequences.
In a statement issued by its Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the association noted that the non-alcoholic drinks sector remains a major contributor to Nigeria’s manufacturing industry, accounting for about 33 per cent of manufacturing output and supporting more than 1.5 million direct and indirect jobs across agriculture, production, logistics, retail, and small businesses.
Despite economic challenges such as inflation, foreign exchange shortages, and rising energy costs, the sector increased its tax remittances from N123 billion in 2022 to N127 billion in 2023, the association said.
MAN disclosed that industry operators currently remit between 40 and 45 per cent of their gross revenues in taxes, a level it described as approaching the upper limit of sustainable taxation. It added that several companies have reported losses in recent years, with some paying taxes from capital rather than profits.
Citing projections by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the association said a 10 to 20 per cent increase in excise duties could reduce the sector’s Gross Value Added from N14.3 trillion to N11.5 trillion by 2030 and cut employment levels from approximately 1.5 million jobs to 1.2 million or less.
On public health concerns, MAN acknowledged government efforts to combat non-communicable diseases (NCDs) but argued that policy responses should reflect Nigeria’s unique consumption patterns and health realities.
The association stated that Nigeria’s per capita sugar consumption stands at about 7.1 kilograms annually, which it said is within the limits recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).
It also argued that sugar-sweetened beverages account for only a small proportion of overall sugar intake and that there is no conclusive evidence linking them as the primary cause of NCDs in the country.
MAN further raised concerns about what it described as increasing fragmentation in Nigeria’s fiscal policy environment, warning that the proposed amendment bill could conflict with the recently introduced Fiscal Policy Measures (FPM) 2026–2028 framework designed to provide policy certainty for businesses and investors.
According to the association, overlapping tax regimes could undermine investor confidence, complicate business planning, and weaken industrial development initiatives such as the Nigeria First Policy and the Nigeria Sugar Master Plan II.
The group also highlighted potential implementation challenges associated with the proposed tax structure, arguing that combining a per-litre charge with a retail price-based levy would create administrative and legal complexities, as Nigeria’s excise tax system is traditionally based on ex-factory or ex-warehouse pricing.
MAN warned that higher excise duties would have ripple effects throughout the value chain, reducing demand, lowering production volumes, affecting agricultural off-take, particularly for sugarcane farmers, and hurting distributors, retailers, and other small businesses.
It noted that low-income consumers could also face affordability challenges, potentially leading some to switch to unregulated alternatives with possible health implications.
Drawing from international experiences, the association cited examples from Mexico, South Africa, and Finland, where sugar taxation policies reportedly resulted in job losses, business closures, or were eventually revised due to administrative challenges and limited health outcomes.
To address its concerns, MAN called on the Federal Government and the Ministry of Finance to engage with the National Assembly to halt the proposed CETA Bill, preserve the integrity of the FPM 2026 – 2028 framework, strengthen coordination of excise policy, and initiate structured consultations with stakeholders.
The association also advocated the development of a post-2028 excise roadmap that balances public health objectives with industrial growth and employment protection.
“The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, on behalf of the Non-Alcoholic Drinks sector, remains committed to partnering with the Federal Government to advance Nigeria’s economic transformation agenda,” Ajayi-Kadir said.
He added that a balanced and predictable excise framework would enable Nigeria to pursue both public health goals and economic stability through collaboration, data-driven policymaking, and long-term planning.
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