The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has described the Federal Government’s newly unveiled 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) as a welcome shift toward fiscal realism, while cautioning that some of the underlying assumptions remain optimistic.
In a policy brief released by its Director/Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the CPPE said the highlights of the new MTEF, presented by the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, reflect a more conservative approach to revenue and expenditure planning, particularly in view of persistent global uncertainties and Nigeria’s recurring fiscal challenges.
According to the organisation, the government’s latest fiscal framework attempts to correct a long-standing pattern of unrealistic projections that have undermined past budgets, widened implementation gaps, and eroded public trust.
Yusuf noted that while the shift is commendable, especially in the wake of missed revenue targets and oil production volatility, further caution is still required to strengthen budget credibility.
The policy brief welcomed the introduction of dual oil production parameters, 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) as the technical projection and 1.80 mbpd as the budget benchmark, describing the latter as more realistic than the assumptions used in the 2025 budget.
However, CPPE recommended an even lower benchmark of 1.6 mbpd, citing historic production shortfalls caused by vandalism, theft, and operational constraints.
On crude oil prices, the new benchmark of $64.85 per barrel was acknowledged as a step toward conservatism.
Still, Yusuf argued it remains higher than global forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Goldman Sachs and the World Bank, which all project prices between $55 and $60 per barrel. Aligning the benchmark closer to $60, he said, would improve fiscal resilience.
The MTEF’s benchmark exchange rate of ₦1,540 per dollar was described as a realistic acknowledgement of expected liquidity pressures during the 2026 election year, as well as broader macroeconomic risks. CPPE said the assumption provides a credible basis for planning FX-dependent projects, contract variations and import-linked spending.
While the GDP growth projection of 4.68% was deemed optimistic, CPPE noted that it does not significantly distort fiscal planning. More importantly, the group praised the reduction in the 2026 revenue projection to ₦34.33 trillion, 16% lower than that of 2025, as a sign of improved prudence within government circles.
CPPE raised concerns about Nigeria’s growing debt burden, noting that ₦15.91 trillion, representing 46% of projected revenue, has been earmarked for debt servicing in 2026.
Yusuf warned that this leaves limited fiscal space for infrastructure, social services, and security spending. He called for urgent reforms to improve revenue mobilisation and enhance efficiency in public expenditure.
The organisation criticised the late submission of the 2026–2028 MTEF to the National Assembly, stating that it undermines comprehensive legislative scrutiny. The Fiscal Responsibility Act requires submission at least four months before a new fiscal year.
The CPPE urged federal lawmakers to resist pressures that could lead to inflated spending or unrealistic assumptions in the budget. The group emphasised that achieving true budget credibility requires both the Executive and Legislature to uphold transparency, discipline, and evidence-based decision-making.
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