Nigeria’s ambition to secure an investment-grade sovereign credit rating by 2030 faces significant challenges, including weak government revenue, high debt-servicing obligations and the need to sustain economic growth, rating agency DataPro has said.
The agency said achieving the target would require consistent economic reforms, stronger fiscal management, improved institutional capacity and measurable progress in strengthening the country’s economic fundamentals.
The issues were highlighted at DataPro’s 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar, where the Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, spoke on the theme, “Achieving Investment-Grade Rating By 2030: The Roadmap for Nigeria.”
Uzoka-Anite identified improved revenue generation, prudent debt management, economic diversification and effective implementation of the proposed National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030 as critical to strengthening Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile.
Revenue Generation, Debt Servicing Key Concerns
According to the Minister, Nigeria must significantly improve its revenue generation capacity and efficiency in public spending to meet its financial obligations while funding critical development projects.
Under the proposed NDP 2026–2030, government revenue is projected to increase from 11.15 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030.
Achieving the target, she said, would require improved tax compliance, more efficient revenue administration and reduced dependence on volatile oil revenues.
Debt servicing also remains a major concern for the country’s fiscal sustainability.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, while the proposed development plan projects a decline in the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio from 62.93 per cent in 2025 to 21.01 per cent by 2030.
The Minister said achieving the projected reduction would depend on sustained revenue growth, prudent borrowing practices and effective debt management.
She stressed that government borrowing should be directed towards expanding productive capacity rather than creating additional fiscal pressures.
She also identified development financing instruments such as Sukuk, Green Bonds and well-structured Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as potential sources of funding for infrastructure and economic development, provided their fiscal risks and value for money are properly assessed.
Economic Diversification Critical to Creditworthiness
The webinar also highlighted the importance of economic diversification in improving Nigeria’s sovereign creditworthiness.
Uzoka-Anite identified agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy and logistics as sectors capable of strengthening economic growth, generating employment and expanding the country’s revenue and export base.
However, she noted that infrastructure deficits, unreliable energy supply and limited access to finance continued to constrain the productive capacity of these sectors.
The proposed NDP targets average real GDP growth of 7.79 per cent between 2026 and 2030, with growth projected to reach 10.34 per cent in the final year.
The private sector is expected to contribute approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment over the five-year period.
According to the Minister, achieving these growth projections will require a stable and predictable policy environment that encourages private investment, expands production and strengthens domestic value chains.
Policy Consistency, Institutional Reforms Essential
Beyond economic growth and fiscal targets, the Minister identified policy consistency, institutional effectiveness, transparency and reliable economic data as important factors in attracting investors and strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s credit profile.
She said the government was pursuing reforms to improve public financial management, strengthen project monitoring and ensure better alignment between the National Development Plan, annual budgets and sectoral programmes.
However, the success of the proposed plan will ultimately depend on effective implementation and the translation of policy commitments into measurable economic outcomes.
DataPro noted that higher government revenue, reduced debt-servicing pressures and improved productivity must move beyond projections to deliver tangible improvements in the country’s economic fundamentals.
Nigeria’s ambition to become a diversified and globally competitive $1 trillion economy by 2030 provides the broader framework for the proposed economic transformation.
However, the Minister maintained that achieving investment-grade credit status should be regarded as the outcome of stronger economic fundamentals, sustainable public finances and credible institutions rather than an objective in isolation.
For Nigeria, the journey towards investment-grade status will therefore depend on its ability to sustain reforms, improve its capacity to meet financial obligations and build resilience against domestic and external economic shocks.
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