Nigeria’s stock market could experience only a gradual recovery in the second half of 2026 as high interest rates, political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 general elections and other economic headwinds continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the Chief Executive Officer of HighCap Securities Limited, David Adonri, has said.
Speaking at the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) Mid-Year 2026 Capital Market Review and Outlook in Lagos, Adonri warned that while the market’s fundamentals remain strong, several domestic and global risks could limit the pace of recovery.
He identified persistent inflation, insecurity, simultaneous capital-raising exercises by companies and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region as additional threats capable of affecting market performance in the months ahead.
According to him, the recent correction on the Nigerian Exchange does not signal a collapse in market fundamentals but reflects institutional investors repositioning their portfolios after the strong rally driven by the Federal Government’s economic reforms.
“The current market correction is a result of institutional investors repositioning their portfolios and not an indication of a breakdown in market fundamentals,” he said.
Despite the challenges, Adonri expressed optimism that the equities market would post a mild recovery in the second half of the year, supported by stronger corporate earnings, improving macroeconomic indicators and sustained reform efforts.
He said the prevailing high interest rate environment is likely to remain, although Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) are expected to realign with their underlying fundamentals as market conditions improve.
Adonri also projected that the activation of the commercial papers and derivatives markets would deepen Nigeria’s capital market by expanding investment opportunities and improving market liquidity.
He described the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange as a landmark development that could significantly boost the size and attractiveness of the domestic capital market.
On the economy, Adonri noted that Nigeria’s reforms continue to receive positive international recognition, citing improved sovereign credit ratings by S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s, as well as favourable growth projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
He attributed the improved outlook to stronger foreign exchange stability, rising external reserves, increased crude oil production and expanding domestic refining capacity.
However, Adonri maintained that the outlook for the capital market would depend largely on the country’s economic and political environment, stressing that policy consistency and macroeconomic stability remain critical to sustaining investor confidence and supporting long-term market growth.
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